White Collar Season Finale: There's Nothing Sadder Than a Con Man Conning Himself

Just when it seemed as though the Vincent Adler/Kate/Nazi treasure storyline had all but wrapped up, last night's season finale of White Collar ("Under the Radar") threw us for another loop with that cliffhanger ending.

Throughout the series' run over the last two seasons, the relationship between Neal Caffrey and Peter Burke has grown into something resembling an actual partnership based on mutual trust, respect, and, well, friendship. Which is why the innate tension and suspicion of the "prove it" scene at the very end of this week's installment threatens to alter the delicate balance that has existed between the two for some time now.

Neal has proven himself a staunch ally to the White Collar Crime Division of the FBI, willing to lend his expertise to catching some crooks, but he's always had his feet in two worlds: the criminality that he's sworn to give up and the path of redemption that Peter has put him on. Is it possible to remain within both? And does the ending of the season seem to indicate that Neal has made a choice about which path he's choosing? Hmmm...

The White Collar writers went to some great lengths to plant that painting of the Chrysler Building at the beginning of the episode, showing the audience Neal's latest work in his flat, establishing that he had painted said painting, but also inserting the fact that he has a storeroom filled with such works. Not only did the audience notice the painting, but so did Peter.

Which made the ending cast more than a little suspicion on Neal: When the warehouse containing the U-Boat's billion-dollar treasure trove went up in smoke (thanks to a convenient explosion that killed no one), Peter spied a tell-tale piece of Neal's painting among the rubble. So did Neal engineer the explosion as part of a master plan of vengeance against Vincent Adler, as Vincent believed?

Nope, though the writers initially wanted us to consider that as a possibility, that Neal would take what Adler loved most since he had taken Kate from him. And that scrap of canvas is awfully incriminating. But while we know that Neal's not the mastermind (he wasn't aware of Adler's location nor that of the treasure), what the scene does is explode the relationship between Neal and Peter, casting Neal in a suddenly untrustworthy light. And Peter's suspicions have the same effect on Neal, making him distrust his partner. Hence, all the posturing and "prove it" machismo at the episode's conclusion. It seems as though the music box's tune has gone sour...

But if Neal's not the culprit than who is? Who left that little anonymous calling card for Neal signaling him to that storage facility? Just who is this mysterious "friend" that leads Neal to the location of the Nazi treasure?

Let's take a look at the possible suspects...

(1) Alex Hunter. We know Alex is a master thief and she has a personal connection to both the treasure (via her grandfather, who was the signalman who heard the last SOS transmission that the sub made) and to Neal. She's made it her life's work to find the music box and solve the riddle that her grandfather had told her about Midas.

She's also extremely helpful (almost obviously so) during the kidnapping and safe-cracking expedition and the kiss she shares with Neal shows that she (A) still has feelings for him, and (B) is willing to drive a wedge between Neal and Sara. Plus, she's no fan of the feds, so anything that puts Neal off-balance there and pulls him back into the world of criminality is a good thing in her book. She's also no fan of Adler, so the heist means getting one over on him as well.

So why would she give it over to Neal? A peace offering? A gift? The promise of more unimaginable wealth to come? And just how would Alex have been able to pull off such a grand design on her own? Hmmm....

(2) Mozzie. The fact that the anonymous note was typed rather than handwritten would seem to indicate that Neal would have recognized the handwriting in question. Which means that the perpetrator is likely someone Neal knows only too well. And Mozzie was there when Neal's painting was glimpsed by Peter.

But surely Mozzie would only be too willing to take credit for pulling off such a feat right underneath the FBI's noses? And why would he seek to incriminate Neal? I think Mozzie's actually in the clear on this one.

(3) Sara Ellis. Our insurance investigator friend did get awfully close to Neal in those library stacks last week, though her feelings were noticeably bruised by seeing Neal and Alex kiss at the dry dock after their near-death experience. Could it be that there's more to Sara than meets the eye and that she likes to walk on the dark side a little bit? We've seen nothing to that effect so far, so I don't think she's suddenly started stealing huge amounts of treasure on a whim.

Other theory: She's been in Neal's apartment and has access to some shady individuals (as well as a nice amount of capital) from her line of work. So, it is possible that she also had a vested interest in the recovery of that Nazi treasure? Could her insurance company be behind the theft in an effort to recover the stolen merchandise and profit from its "disappearance" in that warehouse fire? And that the anonymous note to Neal was her way of scoring one on him? Hmmm...

(4) Unknown Admirer. Neal has a secret admirer, another criminal who is hoping to impress him with this stunning feat that s/he pulled off without him even realizing it. Neal's just as surprised as we are that the collection didn't go up in flames, which could be mission accomplished for this perpetrator. Whoever s/he is, they've certainly got Neal's attention now, which could have been the point in the first place. Can it be that Neal has some competition in the thieving world, someone who is looking to engage in a cat-and-mouse game of oneupsmanship with Neal Caffrey? Otherwise, why lead him to the treasure in the first place? Unless..

(5) Kate. Unless the perpetrator is Kate herself. We never actually saw Kate die, just saw the the plane explode and we assumed Kate was one there. Given that Kate has some powerful friends and access to some shady individuals with specialized skill sets, it's possible that she was able to fake her own death and then take revenge on Vincent Adler. (Though, if I'm being honest, I hope it ISN'T Kate.) What if she's been keeping an eye on Neal and sees this as her opportunity to win her man back and get her revenge at the same time. The warehouse incident leaves Adler dead (thanks to Peter), the relationship between Neal and Peter fractured, and is the perfect opportunity to end the music box-led quest for this treasure that's now gone forever.

Kate and Neal's history does include an incident in a storage facility--when Peter catches him the first time--so isn't it keeping with tradition that the anonymous note would lead Neal to another storage facility? Hmmm... And it would be a twist that throws further tension into the Alex-Neal-Sara love triangle, the working relationship between Neal and Peter, and might be the thing to push Neal back into a life of crime.

So what will Neal do next? While we see him smiling amid the haul of a lifetime, will he tell Peter and the FBI about the stash? Will he keep it for himself? And will he attempt to unravel the mystery of who this anonymous "friend" is?

What do you think? Who is behind the heist? And what do you predict that Season Three of White Collar has in store for Neal Caffrey? Head to the comments section to discuss.

Season Three of White Collar is set to launch in June on USA.